A new explanation of how Subclass 189 Skilled Independent visa invitations may be managed has been circulating widely online. The model outlines how occupations are grouped into tiers, each with a different “multiplier”, which is then used to estimate how many invitations may be issued each year. This approach combines occupation ceilings, workforce size, and priority levels to determine how many 189 invitations may be available after other visa categories are filled.

This article summarises the full information currently being discussed so that skilled workers can understand how invitation numbers may be calculated under this model.

How the proposed 189 allocation logic works

Under the widely discussed model, the Department first fills places through other skilled programs:

• Employer-Sponsored visas
• State-Nominated visas (190)
• Regional visas (491 / 494)

Whatever number remains is then available for Subclass 189 invitations.

To determine how many invitations each occupation receives, two factors are used:
1. Australian workforce size in that occupation
2. A percentage multiplier based on the tier that the occupation falls into

The formula used in the model is:

Occupation Invitations = Workforce Size × Tier % − Last Year’s Employer-Sponsored Visa Grants

A minimum of 500 invitations is expected if the remaining number is above zero but under 500.

If the remaining number reaches zero or if employer-sponsored visas already exceeded the ceiling, then no 189 invitations would be available for that occupation.

Understanding the Four Tiers

Tier 1 – Highest Priority (4% Multiplier)

• These occupations are described as having long training pathways and critical workforce shortages.
• Includes medical specialists and advanced health professionals.
  

Tier 2 – Government Priority (2% Multiplier)

This tier focuses on occupations prioritised under Ministerial Direction 105, especially:

These occupations are highlighted as important for national public services.

Tier 3 – Diverse Occupations (1% Multiplier)

• This tier contains a broad range of professional, technical, scientific and trade occupations.
• It has moderate invitation opportunities because it includes the largest number of skilled occupations.
  

Tier 4 – Oversupplied Occupations (0.5% Multiplier)

• Occupations where Australia reportedly has a large existing workforce or high visa volumes fall here.
• The invitation numbers may be very low.
• These occupations are considered to have the lowest probability of receiving a 189 invitation under this model.
  

Example of Tier Calculation

(Provided in the circulating model)

• Workforce (Software Engineers): 400,000
• Tier: 4 (0.5%)
• Ceiling = 400,000 × 0.5% = 2,000
• Employer-sponsored visas last year: 1,600
• Remaining invitations = 400
→ Below the minimum threshold → 500 invitations issued.

If last year’s employer-sponsored visas exceeded 2,000 → zero invitations.

Summary

The tier-based occupation ceiling model provides a structured way of understanding how many Subclass 189 invitations may be available for different occupations each program year. The approach highlights:

• High-priority medical and education roles at the top
• Large technical, engineering, scientific and trade occupations in the middle
• Oversupplied professions such as accounting and ICT at the lowest tier

Skilled migrants should be aware that the number of invitations under the 189 stream may vary significantly depending on their occupation’s tier and Australia’s labour demand.


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